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R2 Ted Fantasy Football

R2 Ted Fantasy Football is a a sophisticated projection system for predicting weekly fantasy football outcomes, with a focus on daily fantasy sports.  It utilizes cutting edge machine learning linear models and a large data set including advanced stats, climate, travel distance, playing surface, stadium details, days rest, and more to predict each statistical category that accrues fantasy points. R2 simulates each week 10,000 times to calculate the probability that each player appears in the optimal lineup that week.  Projections updated once midweek, once after Friday 5pm injury updates, and one final time within 1 hour of kickoff of main slate.  To efficiently distribute final projections, I can only provide them to those who subscribe to the mailing list.  For more information see the introductory blog post.

*Note that this page displays projections for the main DFS slate of the weekend.  If you are looking for projections for games played on Thursday, Sunday, or Monday nights, I recommend downloading the full projection .xls document or visiting the full projections pages linked below.

Last Updated: 12/31
 

Player
Pos
Team
DK Sal
Opp
Points
St Dev
% Optimal Lineups
Pts/$
Ceiling
Floor
Upside Value
Patrick Mahomes
QB
KC
7600
CIN
21.32
9.13
28.02
2.81
30.45
12.2
4.01
49ers
DST
SF
3000
PHI
6.27
5.48
27.02
2.09
11.75
0.79
3.92
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
KC
4700
CIN
10.3
8.96
26.8
2.19
19.25
1.34
4.1
Jerick McKinnon
RB
KC
5400
CIN
9.71
7.21
26.04
1.8
16.92
2.51
3.13
Jalen Hurts
QB
PHI
7200
SF
20.36
8.96
25.92
2.83
29.32
11.4
4.07
Isiah Pacheco
RB
KC
5300
CIN
9.7
6.85
25.84
1.83
16.55
2.84
3.12
Chiefs
DST
KC
2500
CIN
5.92
4.96
25.56
2.37
10.88
0.97
4.35
Bengals
DST
CIN
2300
KC
5.31
4.93
24.52
2.31
10.24
0.38
4.45
Joe Burrow
QB
CIN
6800
KC
18.67
9
23.24
2.75
27.67
9.67
4.07
Kadarius Toney
WR
KC
3700
CIN
8.43
8.41
22.96
2.28
16.84
0.02
4.55
Eagles
DST
PHI
2800
SF
5.56
4.96
22.9
1.99
10.52
0.6
3.76
Brock Purdy
QB
SF
5300
PHI
17.04
8.66
22.8
3.21
25.7
8.38
4.85

©2023 by r2 sports metrics.

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