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CBCR2 Sam

CBCR2 Sam is a sophisticated statistical system for predicting outcomes of CFB games. CBCR2 Sam uses advanced statistics summarizing prior team performance, team-specific home-field advantage, team-specific away performance, climatic differences for away teams, field surface, and matchup-specific information to predict team performance. CBCR2 Sam is a perfect example of a projection model adhering to the R2 Sports Metrics Philosophy

2022 Performance:  431-161 straight-up (72.8%), 326-249 ATS (56.7%), 11.99 absolute error
2023 Performance:  170-46 straight-up (78.7%), 116-93-7 ATS (55.5
%), 11.13 absolute error

Home
Home Pts
Away
Away Pts
CBCR2 Spread (Home)
Spread (Home)
Proj. Total
Over/Under
Model*
Air Force
24.2
San Diego State
14.3
-9.9
-10
38.4
0
Sam
Akron
25.9
Buffalo
33.4
7.5
-1.5
59.3
0
Sam
Arizona
15.8
Washington
45.6
29.8
17.5
61.4
0
Sam
Auburn
12.9
Georgia
34.2
21.3
15
47.1
0
Sam
BYU
22
Cincinnati
18.8
-3.2
-3
40.8
0
Sam
Boston College
29.2
Virginia
21.7
-7.5
-2
50.9
0
Sam
California
24.5
Arizona State
19.3
-5.2
-11.5
43.8
0
Sam
Central Michigan
28.9
Eastern Michigan
29.3
0.4
-6
58.2
0
Sam
Colorado
25.7
USC
57.4
31.8
24.5
83.1
0
Sam
Connecticut
20
Utah State
26.6
6.6
6
46.6
0
Sam
Duke
22.9
Notre Dame
30.1
7.2
4
53
0
Sam
Fresno State
44.9
Nevada
16.6
-28.4
-23
61.5
0
Sam
Georgia Southern
41
Coastal Carolina
35.1
-5.9
-5
76.1
0
Sam
Georgia State
28.4
Troy
24.6
-3.8
-3.5
53
0
Sam
Georgia Tech
32.2
Bowling Green
18.4
-13.9
-20
50.6
0
Sam
Iowa
16.9
Michigan State
9.9
-7
-10
26.8
0
Sam
James Madison
30.8
South Alabama
27.9
-2.9
-3
58.7
0
Power Index
Kent State
19.9
Miami (OH)
34.9
15
15.5
54.7
0
Sam
Kentucky
19.9
Florida
22
2.1
-3
41.9
0
Sam
Louisiana Monroe
23.2
Appalachian State
34.3
11.2
13.5
57.5
0
Sam
Marshall
29.7
Old Dominion
23.8
-5.9
-13
53.5
0
Sam
Maryland
27.7
Indiana
22.8
-4.9
-14.5
50.5
0
Sam
Memphis
27.8
Boise State
24.7
-3.2
-3
52.5
0
Sam
Minnesota
22.2
Louisiana
25.1
2.9
-9.5
47.3
0
Sam
Mississippi State
20.8
Alabama
30.7
9.9
14.5
51.6
0
Sam
NC State
18.9
Louisville
28.3
9.4
3
47.2
0
Sam
Navy
33.4
South Florida
18.9
-14.5
-4
52.3
0
Sam
Nebraska
10.4
Michigan
33.1
22.7
18
43.5
0
Sam
Northwestern
10.1
Penn State
28.2
18.1
25.5
38.4
0
Sam
Oklahoma
33.6
Iowa State
13.5
-20.1
-20
47.1
0
Sam
Ole Miss
25.8
LSU
33.6
7.8
2.5
59.3
0
Sam
Oregon State
20.8
Utah
22.6
1.8
-1
43.3
0
Sam
Purdue
23.8
Illinois
30.2
6.3
-1.5
54
0
Sam
Rice
30.3
East Carolina
32.1
1.8
-5.5
62.4
0
Sam
SMU
46.6
Charlotte
22.4
-24.2
-23
69
0
Sam
Sam Houston
17.9
Jacksonville State
17.4
-0.4
6.5
35.4
0
Power Index
Southern Mississippi
20.6
Texas State
34.7
14.1
7.5
55.2
0
Sam
Stanford
6.4
Oregon
46.3
39.9
26
52.7
0
Sam
Syracuse
18.9
Clemson
26.9
8
7
45.9
0
Sam
TCU
29.9
West Virginia
25
-4.9
-10
54.9
0
Sam
Tennessee
39.3
South Carolina
16.7
-22.6
-10.5
56
0
Sam
Texas
40.4
Kansas
25.9
-14.6
-17.5
66.3
0
Sam
Texas A&M
24.1
Arkansas
19.4
-4.8
-6.5
43.5
0
Sam
Texas Tech
38
Houston
24.1
-13.9
-10
62.2
0
Sam
Toledo
39.6
Northern Illinois
21.8
-17.8
-14
61.5
0
Sam
Tulane
35.3
UAB
16
-19.3
-20
51.2
0
Sam
Tulsa
31.5
Temple
19.8
-11.7
-4.5
51.3
0
Sam
UCF
41
Baylor
23.7
-17.3
-12
64.7
0
Sam
UMass
32.4
Arkansas State
36.8
4.3
0
69.2
0
Sam
UNLV
33.9
Hawai'i
25.8
-8.1
-10
59.7
0
Sam
UTEP
28.1
Louisiana Tech
24
-4.1
-1
52.1
0
Sam
Vanderbilt
20.2
Missouri
34.4
14.2
12
54.6
0
Sam
Virginia Tech
21.4
Pittsburgh
21.4
0
2
42.7
0
Sam
Western Kentucky
26.7
Middle Tennessee
23.7
-3
-8
50.3
0
Sam
Western Michigan
27.5
Ball State
30.2
2.6
-1
57.7
0
Sam
Wyoming
34
New Mexico
16.9
-17
-12
50.9
0
Sam

*For the 2023 season, r2sportsmetrics.com will produce a projection for every FBS v FBS game, but our best and most cutting edge model, CBCR2 Sam does not produce projections for every game due to a lack of data availability for some teams (remember CBCR2 Sam uses A LOT of information).  So this year we will make projections for all games and note the games that were made with Sam vs. one of our other models.  Here is a description of our models:

  • CBCR2 Sam:  CBCR2 Sam is our cutting-edge machine-learning model that is optimized for ATS performance.  For more information see this post. For performance information see this post.

  • CBCR2 Bob:  Sam's cousin Bob appears early in the season, usually in week zero only.  Bob is identical to Sam in every way, except I use imputed values for the 247 talent index.  Bob is not tested against the spread.

  • CBCR2 Power Index:   Where Bob and Sam are unavailable to project a result, the CBCR2 Power Index can be used to project a score.  For information about the CBCR2 Power Index, see this post.

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