CBCR2 Sam
CBCR2 Sam is a sophisticated statistical system for predicting outcomes of CFB games. CBCR2 Sam uses advanced statistics summarizing prior team performance, team-specific home-field advantage, team-specific away performance, climatic differences for away teams, field surface, and matchup-specific information to predict team performance. CBCR2 Sam is a perfect example of a projection model adhering to the R2 Sports Metrics Philosophy.
2022 Performance: 431-161 straight-up (72.8%), 326-249 ATS (56.7%), 11.99 absolute error
2023 Performance: 170-46 straight-up (78.7%), 116-93-7 ATS (55.5%), 11.13 absolute error
Home | Home Pts | Away | Away Pts | CBCR2 Spread (Home) | Spread (Home) | Proj. Total | Over/Under | Model* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Air Force | 24.2 | San Diego State | 14.3 | -9.9 | -10 | 38.4 | 0 | Sam |
Akron | 25.9 | Buffalo | 33.4 | 7.5 | -1.5 | 59.3 | 0 | Sam |
Arizona | 15.8 | Washington | 45.6 | 29.8 | 17.5 | 61.4 | 0 | Sam |
Auburn | 12.9 | Georgia | 34.2 | 21.3 | 15 | 47.1 | 0 | Sam |
BYU | 22 | Cincinnati | 18.8 | -3.2 | -3 | 40.8 | 0 | Sam |
Boston College | 29.2 | Virginia | 21.7 | -7.5 | -2 | 50.9 | 0 | Sam |
California | 24.5 | Arizona State | 19.3 | -5.2 | -11.5 | 43.8 | 0 | Sam |
Central Michigan | 28.9 | Eastern Michigan | 29.3 | 0.4 | -6 | 58.2 | 0 | Sam |
Colorado | 25.7 | USC | 57.4 | 31.8 | 24.5 | 83.1 | 0 | Sam |
Connecticut | 20 | Utah State | 26.6 | 6.6 | 6 | 46.6 | 0 | Sam |
Duke | 22.9 | Notre Dame | 30.1 | 7.2 | 4 | 53 | 0 | Sam |
Fresno State | 44.9 | Nevada | 16.6 | -28.4 | -23 | 61.5 | 0 | Sam |
Georgia Southern | 41 | Coastal Carolina | 35.1 | -5.9 | -5 | 76.1 | 0 | Sam |
Georgia State | 28.4 | Troy | 24.6 | -3.8 | -3.5 | 53 | 0 | Sam |
Georgia Tech | 32.2 | Bowling Green | 18.4 | -13.9 | -20 | 50.6 | 0 | Sam |
Iowa | 16.9 | Michigan State | 9.9 | -7 | -10 | 26.8 | 0 | Sam |
James Madison | 30.8 | South Alabama | 27.9 | -2.9 | -3 | 58.7 | 0 | Power Index |
Kent State | 19.9 | Miami (OH) | 34.9 | 15 | 15.5 | 54.7 | 0 | Sam |
Kentucky | 19.9 | Florida | 22 | 2.1 | -3 | 41.9 | 0 | Sam |
Louisiana Monroe | 23.2 | Appalachian State | 34.3 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 57.5 | 0 | Sam |
Marshall | 29.7 | Old Dominion | 23.8 | -5.9 | -13 | 53.5 | 0 | Sam |
Maryland | 27.7 | Indiana | 22.8 | -4.9 | -14.5 | 50.5 | 0 | Sam |
Memphis | 27.8 | Boise State | 24.7 | -3.2 | -3 | 52.5 | 0 | Sam |
Minnesota | 22.2 | Louisiana | 25.1 | 2.9 | -9.5 | 47.3 | 0 | Sam |
Mississippi State | 20.8 | Alabama | 30.7 | 9.9 | 14.5 | 51.6 | 0 | Sam |
NC State | 18.9 | Louisville | 28.3 | 9.4 | 3 | 47.2 | 0 | Sam |
Navy | 33.4 | South Florida | 18.9 | -14.5 | -4 | 52.3 | 0 | Sam |
Nebraska | 10.4 | Michigan | 33.1 | 22.7 | 18 | 43.5 | 0 | Sam |
Northwestern | 10.1 | Penn State | 28.2 | 18.1 | 25.5 | 38.4 | 0 | Sam |
Oklahoma | 33.6 | Iowa State | 13.5 | -20.1 | -20 | 47.1 | 0 | Sam |
Ole Miss | 25.8 | LSU | 33.6 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 59.3 | 0 | Sam |
Oregon State | 20.8 | Utah | 22.6 | 1.8 | -1 | 43.3 | 0 | Sam |
Purdue | 23.8 | Illinois | 30.2 | 6.3 | -1.5 | 54 | 0 | Sam |
Rice | 30.3 | East Carolina | 32.1 | 1.8 | -5.5 | 62.4 | 0 | Sam |
SMU | 46.6 | Charlotte | 22.4 | -24.2 | -23 | 69 | 0 | Sam |
Sam Houston | 17.9 | Jacksonville State | 17.4 | -0.4 | 6.5 | 35.4 | 0 | Power Index |
Southern Mississippi | 20.6 | Texas State | 34.7 | 14.1 | 7.5 | 55.2 | 0 | Sam |
Stanford | 6.4 | Oregon | 46.3 | 39.9 | 26 | 52.7 | 0 | Sam |
Syracuse | 18.9 | Clemson | 26.9 | 8 | 7 | 45.9 | 0 | Sam |
TCU | 29.9 | West Virginia | 25 | -4.9 | -10 | 54.9 | 0 | Sam |
Tennessee | 39.3 | South Carolina | 16.7 | -22.6 | -10.5 | 56 | 0 | Sam |
Texas | 40.4 | Kansas | 25.9 | -14.6 | -17.5 | 66.3 | 0 | Sam |
Texas A&M | 24.1 | Arkansas | 19.4 | -4.8 | -6.5 | 43.5 | 0 | Sam |
Texas Tech | 38 | Houston | 24.1 | -13.9 | -10 | 62.2 | 0 | Sam |
Toledo | 39.6 | Northern Illinois | 21.8 | -17.8 | -14 | 61.5 | 0 | Sam |
Tulane | 35.3 | UAB | 16 | -19.3 | -20 | 51.2 | 0 | Sam |
Tulsa | 31.5 | Temple | 19.8 | -11.7 | -4.5 | 51.3 | 0 | Sam |
UCF | 41 | Baylor | 23.7 | -17.3 | -12 | 64.7 | 0 | Sam |
UMass | 32.4 | Arkansas State | 36.8 | 4.3 | 0 | 69.2 | 0 | Sam |
UNLV | 33.9 | Hawai'i | 25.8 | -8.1 | -10 | 59.7 | 0 | Sam |
UTEP | 28.1 | Louisiana Tech | 24 | -4.1 | -1 | 52.1 | 0 | Sam |
Vanderbilt | 20.2 | Missouri | 34.4 | 14.2 | 12 | 54.6 | 0 | Sam |
Virginia Tech | 21.4 | Pittsburgh | 21.4 | 0 | 2 | 42.7 | 0 | Sam |
Western Kentucky | 26.7 | Middle Tennessee | 23.7 | -3 | -8 | 50.3 | 0 | Sam |
Western Michigan | 27.5 | Ball State | 30.2 | 2.6 | -1 | 57.7 | 0 | Sam |
Wyoming | 34 | New Mexico | 16.9 | -17 | -12 | 50.9 | 0 | Sam |
*For the 2023 season, r2sportsmetrics.com will produce a projection for every FBS v FBS game, but our best and most cutting edge model, CBCR2 Sam does not produce projections for every game due to a lack of data availability for some teams (remember CBCR2 Sam uses A LOT of information). So this year we will make projections for all games and note the games that were made with Sam vs. one of our other models. Here is a description of our models:
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CBCR2 Sam: CBCR2 Sam is our cutting-edge machine-learning model that is optimized for ATS performance. For more information see this post. For performance information see this post.
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CBCR2 Bob: Sam's cousin Bob appears early in the season, usually in week zero only. Bob is identical to Sam in every way, except I use imputed values for the 247 talent index. Bob is not tested against the spread.
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CBCR2 Power Index: Where Bob and Sam are unavailable to project a result, the CBCR2 Power Index can be used to project a score. For information about the CBCR2 Power Index, see this post.