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CBCR2 Sam

CBCR2 Sam is a sophisticated statistical system for predicting outcomes of CFB games. CBCR2 Sam uses advanced statistics summarizing prior team performance, team-specific home-field advantage, team-specific away performance, climatic differences for away teams, field surface, and matchup-specific information to predict team performance. CBCR2 Sam is a perfect example of a projection model adhering to the R2 Sports Metrics Philosophy

2022 Performance:  431-161 straight-up (72.8%), 326-249 ATS (56.7%), 11.99 absolute error
2023 Performance:  543-202 straight-up (72.9%), 391-346 ATS (53.1
%), 12.58 absolute error

Michigan 34.6, Wash 25.4

Home
Home Pts
Away
Away Pts
CBCR2 Spread (Home)
Spread (Home)
Proj. Total
Over/Under
Model*
Appalachian State
27.5
Miami (OH)
25.7
-1.8
0
53.2
0
Sam
Arkansas State
25
Northern Illinois
34
9
0
59
0
Sam
Army
12.9
Navy
14.7
1.7
-3
27.6
27.5
Sam
Boise State
21
UCLA
21.4
0.4
0
42.4
0
Sam
Eastern Michigan
7.8
South Alabama
32.4
24.6
0
40.3
0
Sam
Fresno State
27.2
New Mexico State
29.7
2.5
0
56.9
0
Sam
Georgia
27.3
Florida State
16.3
-11
0
43.7
0
Sam
Georgia Southern
22.9
Ohio
27.7
4.8
0
50.6
0
Sam
Georgia Tech
22.1
UCF
34.5
12.4
0
56.5
0
Sam
Iowa
16.7
Tennessee
18.7
2
0
35.4
0
Sam
Iowa State
34.9
Memphis
21.3
-13.6
0
56.2
0
Sam
Kentucky
12.4
Clemson
24.6
12.2
0
37
0
Sam
Liberty
24.7
Oregon
42.1
17.4
0
66.7
0
Sam
Louisville
25.1
USC
31.6
6.4
0
56.7
0
Sam
Maryland
23.7
Auburn
28.6
5
0
52.3
0
Sam
Michigan
29.9
Alabama
22.2
-7.7
0
52.1
0
Sam
Minnesota
26.6
Bowling Green
19.3
-7.4
0
45.9
0
Sam
NC State
19.7
Kansas State
29.7
10.1
0
49.4
0
Sam
North Carolina
32.4
West Virginia
25.8
-6.6
0
58.2
0
Sam
Northwestern
13.3
Utah
27.4
14.1
0
40.8
0
Sam
Notre Dame
32
Oregon State
23.3
-8.7
0
55.4
0
Sam
Ohio State
33.2
Missouri
17.6
-15.6
0
50.8
0
Sam
Oklahoma
34.7
Arizona
26.3
-8.5
0
61
0
Sam
Old Dominion
19.1
Western Kentucky
27.3
8.2
0
46.4
0
Sam
Penn State
29.2
Ole Miss
11.4
-17.9
0
40.6
0
Sam
Rice
33.8
Texas State
30.6
-3.2
0
64.4
0
Sam
Rutgers
9.2
Miami
30.3
21.1
0
39.5
0
Sam
SMU
33.2
Boston College
24.5
-8.7
0
57.7
0
Sam
San José State
27.4
Coastal Carolina
17.3
-10.1
0
44.8
0
Sam
South Florida
25.5
Syracuse
31.1
5.6
0
56.6
0
Sam
Texas
29.2
Washington
24.7
-4.5
0
54
0
Sam
Texas A&M
35.5
Oklahoma State
21.2
-14.3
0
56.7
0
Sam
Texas Tech
28.8
California
29.6
0.8
0
58.4
0
Sam
Troy
21.8
Duke
22.2
0.4
0
44
0
Sam
Tulane
21.3
Virginia Tech
24.8
3.5
0
46.2
0
Sam
UNLV
23
Kansas
43.6
20.6
0
66.7
0
Sam
UT San Antonio
33.1
Marshall
15.3
-17.7
0
48.4
0
Sam
Utah State
30.5
Georgia State
24.6
-5.9
0
55.1
0
Sam
Wisconsin
20.1
LSU
38.7
18.6
0
58.9
0
Sam
Wyoming
23.3
Toledo
21.6
-1.7
0
44.9
0
Sam

*For the 2023 season, r2sportsmetrics.com will produce a projection for every FBS v FBS game, but our best and most cutting edge model, CBCR2 Sam does not produce projections for every game due to a lack of data availability for some teams (remember CBCR2 Sam uses A LOT of information).  So this year we will make projections for all games and note the games that were made with Sam vs. one of our other models.  Here is a description of our models:

  • CBCR2 Sam:  CBCR2 Sam is our cutting-edge machine-learning model that is optimized for ATS performance.  For more information see this post. For performance information see this post.

  • CBCR2 Bob:  Sam's cousin Bob appears early in the season, usually in week zero only.  Bob is identical to Sam in every way, except I use imputed values for the 247 talent index.  Bob is not tested against the spread.

  • CBCR2 Power Index:   Where Bob and Sam are unavailable to project a result, the CBCR2 Power Index can be used to project a score.  For information about the CBCR2 Power Index, see this post.

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