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R2 Roy NFL Projection System

R2 Roy NFL is a sophisticated statistical system for predicting outcomes of NFL games. R2 Roy uses advanced statistics summarizing prior team performance, team-specific home-field advantage, team-specific away performance, climatic differences for away teams, field surface, and matchup-specific information to predict team performance. R2 Roy is the perfect example of a projection model adhering to the R2 Sports Metrics Philosophy.  For more information see About Roy - How Roy Performs in Testing.

2022 Performance:  Straight up: 172-110-2 (61%);  ATS: 147-129-8 (53.2%); Absolute Error: 9.10

2023 Performance: Straight up: 34-14 (70.8%); ATS: 32-16 (70%); Absolute Error: 12.4; OU:  27-21 (56.3%%)

Home
Home Proj.
Away
Away Proj.
Proj. Away MoV
Proj. Winner
Win Prob
Proj. Total
Spread (Home)
Over/Under
Panthers
22.1
Vikings
24.8
2.7
Vikings
0.5776
46.9
4
46
Bears
20.7
Broncos
25.1
4.3
Broncos
0.6232
45.8
3.5
46
Titans
18.5
Bengals
22.8
4.3
Bengals
0.6267
41.3
2.5
42.5
Cowboys
24.0
Patriots
19.4
-4.6
Cowboys
0.6315
43.4
-7
43.5
Colts
21.4
Rams
21.8
0.4
Rams
0.5115
43.2
-1.5
44.5
Saints
21.6
Buccaneers
19.9
-1.7
Saints
0.5399
41.4
-3
40
Giants
21.3
Seahawks
26.0
4.7
Seahawks
0.629
47.3
-1.5
46.5
Packers
23.9
Lions
26.0
2.1
Lions
0.5582
49.9
1.5
45
Bills
26.9
Dolphins
22.1
-4.8
Bills
0.641
49.1
-2.5
53.5
Browns
18.0
Ravens
21.0
3.0
Ravens
0.5865
38.9
-2.5
41
Texans
17.7
Steelers
24.5
6.8
Steelers
0.6937
42.2
3
41
Eagles
25.5
Commanders
17.3
-8.2
Eagles
0.7271
42.8
-8.5
44.5
Chargers
25.8
Raiders
22.0
-3.8
Chargers
0.621
47.8
-5.5
48
49ers
27.3
Cardinals
16.1
-11.3
49ers
0.7996
43.4
-14
43.5
Jets
17.9
Chiefs
27.6
9.7
Chiefs
0.7601
45.5
9.5
42.5
Falcons
20.5
Jaguars
22.4
1.9
Jaguars
0.5548
42.9
3
43
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