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QB/WR/TE Stack Analysis
On the primary DFS projection page, R2 presents estimates of the probability that a player will appear in an optimal lineup based on the results of 10,000 simulations. In those simulations, the projections of quarterbacks and their receivers are uncorrelated. However, in DFS you want to take advantage of correlations between players to give your roster a higher ceiling. A primary method to achieve this is to stack a quarterback in the same lineup with one or more of his receivers. To estimate the probability that a QB and WR/TE tandem appear in the optimal lineup that week, we simulate the week again with some correlation between QB performance and WR performance using a coefficient we estimated empirically.
*Stack analysis is last updated on Saturday. Some stacks may contain injured players.*
QB | WR/TE | % Optimal Lineups | QB Proj | QB St Dev | WR/TE Proj | WR/TE St Dev | Stack Cost |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Mahomes | Travis Kelce | 16.52 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 18.1 | 9.8 | 15400 |
Joe Burrow | Ja'Marr Chase | 15.46 | 18.7 | 9 | 20 | 12.3 | 14400 |
Patrick Mahomes | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 13.28 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 9 | 12300 |
Brock Purdy | Deebo Samuel | 12.98 | 17 | 8.7 | 14.4 | 8.6 | 11000 |
Jalen Hurts | A.J. Brown | 12.68 | 20.4 | 9 | 16.8 | 10.1 | 14200 |
Jalen Hurts | DeVonta Smith | 11.98 | 20.4 | 9 | 16.3 | 8.9 | 14000 |
Jalen Hurts | Dallas Goedert | 11.44 | 20.4 | 9 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 11300 |
Patrick Mahomes | Kadarius Toney | 11.24 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 11300 |
Brock Purdy | Brandon Aiyuk | 9.56 | 17 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 9700 |
Joe Burrow | Tee Higgins | 9.28 | 18.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 9 | 12200 |
Brock Purdy | George Kittle | 9.2 | 17 | 8.7 | 11 | 8.9 | 10500 |
Patrick Mahomes | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 9.18 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 11200 |
Joe Burrow | Hayden Hurst | 5.6 | 18.7 | 9 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 9800 |
Joe Burrow | Tyler Boyd | 5.28 | 18.7 | 9 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 10600 |
Patrick Mahomes | Justin Watson | 2.26 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 5 | 5 | 10600 |
Brock Purdy | Jauan Jennings | 1.76 | 17 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 8600 |
Patrick Mahomes | Noah Gray | 1.16 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 10100 |
Jalen Hurts | Quez Watkins | 0.62 | 20.4 | 9 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 10300 |
Joe Burrow | Trenton Irwin | 0.32 | 18.7 | 9 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 9800 |
Jalen Hurts | Zach Pascal | 0.28 | 20.4 | 9 | 0.8 | 4.9 | 10200 |
Patrick Mahomes | Skyy Moore | 0.22 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 10600 |
Brock Purdy | Ray-Ray McCloud | 0.18 | 17 | 8.7 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 8300 |
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