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R2 Ted Fantasy Football

R2 Ted Fantasy Football is a a sophisticated projection system for predicting weekly fantasy football outcomes, with a focus on daily fantasy sports.  It utilizes cutting edge machine learning linear models and a large data set including advanced stats, climate, travel distance, playing surface, stadium details, days rest, and more to predict each statistical category that accrues fantasy points. R2 simulates each week 10,000 times to calculate the probability that each player appears in the optimal lineup that week.  Projections updated once midweek, once after Friday 5pm injury updates, and one final time within 1 hour of kickoff of main slate.  To efficiently distribute final projections, I can only provide them to those who subscribe to the mailing list.  For more information see the introductory blog post.

*Note that this page displays projections for the main DFS slate of the weekend.  If you are looking for projections for games played on Thursday, Sunday, or Monday nights, I recommend downloading the full projection .xls document or visiting the full projections pages linked below.

 Stacks Analysis 

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Last Updated: 12/31
 

Player
Pos
Team
DK Sal
Opp
Points
St Dev
% Optimal Lineups
Pts/$
Ceiling
Floor
Upside Value
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
CIN
7600
KC
19.98
12.34
51.26
2.63
32.32
7.64
4.25
Christian McCaffrey
RB
SF
8000
PHI
17.27
9.95
48.28
2.16
27.22
7.32
3.4
Joe Mixon
RB
CIN
6500
KC
14.4
8.67
44.62
2.21
23.07
5.72
3.55
Travis Kelce
TE
KC
7800
CIN
18.09
9.82
43.54
2.32
27.92
8.27
3.58
A.J. Brown
WR
PHI
7000
SF
16.77
10.11
42.4
2.4
26.88
6.66
3.84
DeVonta Smith
WR
PHI
6800
SF
16.27
8.92
39.74
2.39
25.18
7.35
3.7
Dallas Goedert
TE
PHI
4100
SF
12.2
7.22
38.2
2.97
19.41
4.98
4.73
Deebo Samuel
WR
SF
5700
PHI
14.37
8.65
38
2.52
23.02
5.72
4.04
Miles Sanders
RB
PHI
5200
SF
10.59
8
34.42
2.04
18.59
2.59
3.57
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
SF
4400
PHI
11.79
7.67
33.42
2.68
19.46
4.12
4.42
Tee Higgins
WR
CIN
5400
KC
12.44
8.98
32.3
2.3
21.42
3.46
3.97
George Kittle
TE
SF
5200
PHI
11.05
8.89
29.56
2.12
19.94
2.15
3.84
Patrick Mahomes
QB
KC
7600
CIN
21.32
9.13
28.02
2.81
30.45
12.2
4.01
49ers
DST
SF
3000
PHI
6.27
5.48
27.02
2.09
11.75
0.79
3.92
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
KC
4700
CIN
10.3
8.96
26.8
2.19
19.25
1.34
4.1
Jerick McKinnon
RB
KC
5400
CIN
9.71
7.21
26.04
1.8
16.92
2.51
3.13
Jalen Hurts
QB
PHI
7200
SF
20.36
8.96
25.92
2.83
29.32
11.4
4.07
Isiah Pacheco
RB
KC
5300
CIN
9.7
6.85
25.84
1.83
16.55
2.84
3.12
Chiefs
DST
KC
2500
CIN
5.92
4.96
25.56
2.37
10.88
0.97
4.35
Bengals
DST
CIN
2300
KC
5.31
4.93
24.52
2.31
10.24
0.38
4.45
Joe Burrow
QB
CIN
6800
KC
18.67
9
23.24
2.75
27.67
9.67
4.07
Kadarius Toney
WR
KC
3700
CIN
8.43
8.41
22.96
2.28
16.84
0.02
4.55
Eagles
DST
PHI
2800
SF
5.56
4.96
22.9
1.99
10.52
0.6
3.76
Brock Purdy
QB
SF
5300
PHI
17.04
8.66
22.8
3.21
25.7
8.38
4.85
Hayden Hurst
TE
CIN
3000
KC
8.12
6.4
21.7
2.71
14.52
1.72
4.84
Tyler Boyd
WR
CIN
3800
KC
8.45
7.27
21.12
2.22
15.72
1.18
4.14
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR
KC
3600
CIN
7.76
7.31
19.12
2.16
15.07
0.45
4.19
Samaje Perine
RB
CIN
4500
KC
5.98
6.16
12.68
1.33
12.14
0
2.7
Kenneth Gainwell
RB
PHI
4800
SF
5.56
6.55
12.06
1.16
12.11
0
2.52
Jauan Jennings
WR
SF
3300
PHI
5.57
5.81
8.46
1.69
11.38
0
3.45
Justin Watson
WR
KC
3000
CIN
4.97
4.99
6.08
1.66
9.96
0
3.32
Elijah Mitchell
RB
SF
4900
PHI
4.88
5.22
5.84
1
10.1
0
2.06
Noah Gray
TE
KC
2500
CIN
3.86
3.85
3.98
1.55
7.71
0.02
3.09
Boston Scott
RB
PHI
4600
SF
2.4
5.44
3
0.52
7.84
0
1.7
Quez Watkins
WR
PHI
3100
SF
3.51
4.44
1.94
1.13
7.95
0
2.57
Kyle Juszczyk
RB
SF
4000
PHI
2.01
4.35
1.72
0.5
6.36
0
1.59
Trenton Irwin
WR
CIN
3000
KC
2.74
4.22
1.44
0.91
6.97
0
2.32
Skyy Moore
WR
KC
3000
CIN
2.08
4.22
1.26
0.69
6.3
0
2.1
Zach Pascal
WR
PHI
3000
SF
0.81
4.94
1.04
0.27
5.75
0
1.92
Ray-Ray McCloud
WR
SF
3000
PHI
1.41
3.93
0.7
0.47
5.34
0
1.78
Mitchell Wilcox
TE
CIN
2500
KC
1.05
3.05
0.48
0.42
4.1
0
1.64
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