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R2 Ted Fantasy Football

R2 Ted Fantasy Football is a a sophisticated projection system for predicting weekly fantasy football outcomes, with a focus on daily fantasy sports.  It utilizes cutting edge machine learning linear models and a large data set including advanced stats, climate, travel distance, playing surface, stadium details, days rest, and more to predict each statistical category that accrues fantasy points. R2 simulates each week 10,000 times to calculate the probability that each player appears in the optimal lineup that week.  Projections updated once midweek, once after Friday 5pm injury updates, and one final time within 1 hour of kickoff of main slate.  To efficiently distribute final projections, I can only provide them to those who subscribe to the mailing list.  For more information see the introductory blog post.

*Note that this page displays projections for the main DFS slate of the weekend.  If you are looking for projections for games played on Thursday, Sunday, or Monday nights, I recommend downloading the full projection .xls document or visiting the full projections pages linked below.

Last Updated: 12/31
 

Player
Pos
Team
DK Sal
Opp
Points
St Dev
% Optimal Lineups
Pts/$
Ceiling
Floor
Upside Value
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
CIN
7600
KC
19.98
12.34
51.26
2.63
32.32
7.64
4.25
Christian McCaffrey
RB
SF
8000
PHI
17.27
9.95
48.28
2.16
27.22
7.32
3.4
Joe Mixon
RB
CIN
6500
KC
14.4
8.67
44.62
2.21
23.07
5.72
3.55
Travis Kelce
TE
KC
7800
CIN
18.09
9.82
43.54
2.32
27.92
8.27
3.58
A.J. Brown
WR
PHI
7000
SF
16.77
10.11
42.4
2.4
26.88
6.66
3.84
DeVonta Smith
WR
PHI
6800
SF
16.27
8.92
39.74
2.39
25.18
7.35
3.7
Dallas Goedert
TE
PHI
4100
SF
12.2
7.22
38.2
2.97
19.41
4.98
4.73
Deebo Samuel
WR
SF
5700
PHI
14.37
8.65
38
2.52
23.02
5.72
4.04
Miles Sanders
RB
PHI
5200
SF
10.59
8
34.42
2.04
18.59
2.59
3.57
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
SF
4400
PHI
11.79
7.67
33.42
2.68
19.46
4.12
4.42
Tee Higgins
WR
CIN
5400
KC
12.44
8.98
32.3
2.3
21.42
3.46
3.97
George Kittle
TE
SF
5200
PHI
11.05
8.89
29.56
2.12
19.94
2.15
3.84

©2023 by r2 sports metrics.

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